The crypto market took a heavy hit yesterday: Bitcoin plunged toward about $80,400, and Ether collapsed to around $2,400. Today, the market has retraced a bit, and Bitcoin has returned toward $82,000. The reason for the bounce was political: Donald Trump said the US will not launch a new active military phase against Iran before the November 3 midterms and called talks with Tehran "productive."

Yesterday's drop began with a reverse signal. Reports emerged that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare options to resume strikes on Iran before the election, and oil spiked — WTI jumped from $89 to $93.20. Expensive oil amplified inflation fears already pressuring markets through record-high bond yields and the Federal Reserve minutes. After Trump's remarks, oil fell sharply, and Bitcoin and Ether rallied. The winners are those who opened short positions in a panic — but only until fear returns; holders who were knocked out of long positions yesterday lose.

The liquidation picture shows the scale of yesterday's crash. Over 24 hours, CoinGlass reports, forced liquidations closed 182,265 traders' positions totaling $1.09bn. Of that, $936.48m were longs and only $158.47m were shorts — about 86% of the losses fell on buyers. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid in the ETH-USD pair and amounted to $19.98m, consistent with Ether's larger drop relative to Bitcoin.

Shorter windows show how the market shifted. Over the last 12 hours, liquidations totaled only $97.96m — under 10% of the 24-hour volume — and shorts now predominate: $83.07m versus $14.89m in longs. Over 4 hours, $29.24m was liquidated, with $25.77m of it shorts; in the past hour, $6.66m was liquidated, with $5.83m of it shorts. The hourly heatmap leaders were Bitcoin ($1.74m) and RLC ($1.40m), followed by "Others" ($501k), gold (XAU) ($495k), and Ether ($225k). In other words, the main squeeze is behind us, and short covering is fueling the current bounce.

I would not overstate the resilience of this recovery. Trump's promise is only valid until November 3; Iran has not yet responded to the US approach, and the risk of a blockade remains. My base case: while oil does not rise again, Bitcoin will try to hold above $82,600 and return toward $83,100, but without fresh spot demand, the upside will remain limited. A drop and close below $81,600 would return the market to yesterday's lows around $80,400, and Ether would once again fall faster than Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin, the price trades in a narrow range between support at 82,200 and resistance at 82,600, with outer boundaries at 81,600 and 83,100, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with a full set of breakout and rejection scenarios. There are two entries for buying. First: a confirmed breakout above 82,600 — buy targeting 83,100, where I take profit and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Second: a rebound from 82,200 if the downside breakout fails and the spike proves false — buy for a return first to 82,600 and then to 83,100.

Sales are symmetric. On a confirmed breakdown below 82,200, consider a short targeting 81,600, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome is below zero. If an upside breakout of 82,600 fails and price returns below that level, short from resistance aiming back to 82,200 and then 81,600.

For Ether, the logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the inner range is between support 2,478 and resistance 2,497, with outer boundaries at 2,450 and 2,526. Buy on a confirmed breakout above 2,497, targeting 2,526, where you can take profit and consider a short on the pullback; conditions are the same—price above the 50-day MA and Awesome above zero. Buy on a rebound from 2,478 if the downside breakout fails, initially toward 2,497 and then 2,526.

For sales, a confirmed breakdown of 2,478 opens a short targeting 2,450, provided the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero. A rejection from 2,497, if the upside breakout fails, gives a short for a return to 2,478 and then 2,450. Use both indicators as filters to rule out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early, and take trades only after price confirms the specified levels.