यह भी देखें
09.10.2026 07:07 PM
The EUR/USD pair has been declining for 22 consecutive days, apart from a few brief pauses. During this period, the European currency has lost 470 points, and its losing streak began more than a month ago as the market prepared for an FOMC interest rate hike. Since then, the market has continued buying the US dollar, using any plausible pretext to do so.
In trading terminology, such movements are known as order flow. Typically, major market participants build up a pool of orders within a range before those orders begin to be executed. At that point, the accompanying news backdrop becomes largely irrelevant: the orders have already been placed and are being filled.
For example, there were virtually no reasons to sell EUR/USD this week, apart from France's ongoing budget crisis. However, budgetary and public debt problems affect many countries around the world. The situation is far more acute in the United States than in France. Nevertheless, the market has continued to move relentlessly in one direction almost every day, without even the slightest sign of a corrective rebound. Even today, the euro lost several dozen points over the course of the session.
Nothing has been able to stop the euro's decline so far. Neither the ECB's tighter monetary policy, nor favorable economic data from the European Union, nor disappointing US labor market figures, nor the technical chart structure and bullish patterns have managed to halt the downward move.
With Imbalance 19 invalidated, the euro now has every chance of falling below the psychologically significant $1.10 level. Meanwhile, Bullish Imbalance 19 has turned into a Bearish Inverted Imbalance, generating a sell signal. The bulls failed to capitalize on two bullish swings and were unable to take advantage of disappointing US labor market data. This week, the bears did not even need to see a reaction at Imbalance 24 to resume their advance.
In September, the FOMC not only raised interest rates but also signaled its willingness to continue tightening monetary policy. This alone was enough to sustain the bears' large-scale advance. Even after the Fed's September tightening and the possibility of another move in October or December, it is difficult to argue that the euro has received no positive news whatsoever during this period.
Overall, the news backdrop continues to favor the bulls, in my view. Although the Fed has adopted a more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. It is worth remembering that US Treasury yields have reached record levels, placing enormous pressure on the federal budget. The US economy has slowed in recent quarters, and the labor market has more often disappointed than exceeded expectations. In 2026, Donald Trump resumed a wave of trade and non-trade disputes with numerous countries. Meanwhile, the US stock market continues to raise serious concerns because of unchecked, debt-financed investment in technology companies involved in AI development.
The current chart structure indicates that bearish momentum remains intact. Last week ended with the formation of a new Bearish Imbalance 24, which could provide traders with another sell signal as early as this week. The bulls can now look only to the next nearby swing low at 1.1066 and a potential liquidity sweep below it.
There was virtually no economic news on Friday, just as there had been during almost the entire week. Only an hour ago, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released in the United States, coming in below market expectations. This did nothing to prevent the dollar from continuing to rise. Economic data therefore continue to have virtually no influence on market sentiment, even when such data are available.
The bulls still have plenty of reasons to launch an attack in 2026. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which caused the dollar to fall sharply last year—have not changed. At present, there are no significant factors supporting the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the dollar during much of the first half of 2026, are no longer providing that support.
On October 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The economic news backdrop is therefore expected to have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been undergoing a corrective pause for an entire year. The news backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears seven months ago, but the trend itself, which has been in place for four years, cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete.
The bulls could resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only realistic opportunity at present is the swing low at 1.1066, established in June last year. The bears received a new sell signal at Imbalance 19 and could receive another signal at Imbalance 24 next week. However, the bears are currently so confident in their position that they do not even need to wait for price to rebalance within the imbalance zone. The bulls have little left to do but hope for a miracle.
